--- title: Glossary — Noah Predict description: Defined terms used in Noah Predict output — narrative lead, composite risk score, Jaccard coupling, signal fire, regime stress velocity and more. url: https://noahpredict.com/glossary/ source: Noah Predict — Worldwide AI Media Ltd last_updated: 2026-04-17 licence: CC-BY-4.0-with-attribution-and-no-redistribution --- Home›Glossary # Glossary The defined terms that appear across Noah Predict output. Every term below is drawn directly from Noah Predict output. Definitions are deliberately short — a single decision-ready sentence — with cross-links to related terms. For the underlying methodology, see methodology. For the product FAQ, see faq. BCDEHJNPRSTV B ### Backtest window The historical interval used to measure a model's predictive performance against known events. Noah Predict publishes rolling 90-day backtests for every benchmark-grade vertical. See also: Held-out set, Positive predictive value. ### Benchmark-grade A coverage tier where source density, backtest history and calibration meet published thresholds sufficient for use in regulated decision support. See also: Exploratory beta, Confidence band. C ### Chokepoint risk The probability of material disruption at a maritime bottleneck (e.g. Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Suez, Malacca) over a defined horizon. See also: Port closure risk, Shadow-fleet exposure. ### Civil-unrest change-point The moment at which protest dynamics shift from background level to an escalatory regime, detected through acceleration in frequency, geography and participant composition. See also: Signal fire. ### Composite risk score A single 0–10 score combining weighted drivers from a vertical into one decision-ready number. Always accompanied by its confidence band and the list of contributing drivers. See also: Confidence band, Driver. ### Confidence band The interval within which the true score is expected to fall given current source density and model calibration. Narrower bands indicate higher certainty. See also: Composite risk score. ### Contrarian read A mandatory field on every Noah output naming the strongest case against the headline view. "There is no contrarian case" is a validator rejection. See also: Blind spot. ### Coupling The degree to which two independent signal streams move together. When port closure and road closure couple at Jaccard 1.0, cargo movement has stopped. See also: Jaccard coupling. D ### Divergence The gap between what official sources say and what the broader information system is saying. Large divergence is a strong predictive signal. See also: External anchors, Narrative lead. ### Driver An individual input signal that contributes to a composite risk score. Every composite publishes its driver decomposition and the weight applied to each. See also: Composite risk score. E ### Equal-source vote The doctrine that a wire service, a court listing, an academic pre-print and a parliamentary transcript each count once. Tier-one prestige does not confer additional weight. Weight is earned by corroboration. Empirically attested via the Polymarket 30% drop. See also: Polymarket attestation, Noise is substrate. ### Exploratory beta A capability tier where the engine produces directionally useful output but lacks the source density or backtest history to claim benchmark-grade reliability. Clearly labelled as such in the Labs page. See also: Benchmark-grade. ### External anchors Six independent public references attached to every country-level risk bundle: FCDO, US State Department, Global Peace Index, World Bank WGI, OFAC & UK HMT sanctions registries, and ACLED. Broad agreement is confirmation; divergence is a prompt to read Noah's blind spot. See also: Divergence, Contrarian read. H ### Held-out set A sample of historical data withheld from model training used to measure out-of-sample performance. Each vertical publishes its held-out composition alongside the backtest. See also: Backtest window. J ### Jaccard coupling A coupling score between 0 and 1 measuring how frequently two signal streams co-occur across a time window. 1.0 means the two always fire together in the sample; 0.0 means never. See also: Coupling. N ### Narrative lead The median elapsed time between a Noah Predict signal firing and the same directional change being reflected in broker consensus pricing. Currently 6.4 hours across verticals. See also: Signal fire, Provenance. ### Noise is substrate One of the five doctrine rules: a sentiment expressed by many low-prestige sources is a real sentiment. Conventional tools filter it as fringe; Noah measures it as substrate. See also: Equal-source vote. P ### Per-paragraph sentiment Classification performed at the paragraph level rather than the article level. An 800-word article typically contains 6–12 structured signal units. Article-level classification loses them. See also: Driver. ### Polymarket attestation An empirical field travelling with every bundle showing that upweighting tier-one sources reduced Noah's predictive accuracy on resolved Polymarket markets by 30% (Brier score). The load-bearing evidence behind the equal-source-vote doctrine. See also: Equal-source vote. ### Port closure risk The probability of a named port entering an operational-stop state over a defined horizon. A maritime sub-signal that often couples with road closure at Jaccard 1.0 when logistics shut down. See also: Chokepoint risk, Coupling. ### Positive predictive value The share of fired signals that were followed by the predicted directional change within the stated horizon. Noah's current composite PPV is 0.71. See also: Signal fire. ### Progressive narrowing The doctrine of running multiple retrieval passes — typically three or four — each narrowing the search on what the previous pass surfaced. Enables reducing a 20,000-item corpus to a 300-signal answer without losing the signals you wanted. See also: Reduction funnel. ### Provenance The property that every conclusion is traceable to the underlying drivers, thresholds and source documents that produced it. Noah publishes 100% provenance; no output is rendered without an audit trail. See also: Audit trail. R ### Reduction funnel The five-stage pipeline every output passes through: Ingest, Classify, Score, Reduce, Render. Documented publicly. See also: Progressive narrowing. ### Regime stress velocity The rate of change in sovereign-regime stress indicators over a rolling window. Used as an early-warning driver for regime transition and default risk. See also: Velocity. S ### Shadow-fleet exposure Exposure to vessels operating outside mainstream AIS reporting, sanctioned ownership structures, or flag-of-convenience arrangements. A maritime underwriting signal with its own scoring lane. See also: Chokepoint risk. ### Signal fire The moment at which an underlying driver crosses a calibrated threshold indicating a directional change in risk. Timestamped, source-attributed, auditable. Approximately 1,847 signal fires per 90-day window across all verticals at current coverage. See also: Civil-unrest change-point, Narrative lead. T ### Trajectory Where velocity is heading over a defined window. The second derivative of attention. Positive trajectory is an accelerating narrative; negative is one settling down. See also: Velocity, Volatility. V ### Velocity Rate of change in mentions, severity and actor involvement. The first derivative of attention. One of five physics measurements applied continuously to every signal. See also: Trajectory. ### Volatility Noise around a signal. High-volatility signals are noted but weighted lower until they stabilise. One of five physics measurements. See also: Trajectory. ### Every term is live in the product. Open the workspace to see them in Noah output. Open the workspace → Methodology --- ## Citation Cite this page as: "Noah Predict, Glossary, Worldwide AI Media Ltd, https://noahpredict.com/glossary/, accessed [date]."