--- title: Insurance Risk — NOAH PREDICT description: Political risk intelligence for insurers — structured insight into political violence, terrorism, civil unrest and personnel risk, designed for underwriting and exposure assessment. url: https://noahpredict.com/insurance/ source: Noah Predict — Worldwide AI Media Ltd last_updated: 2026-04-17 licence: CC-BY-4.0-with-attribution-and-no-redistribution --- ← Back to Noah Predict FOR INSURERS # Political risk intelligence for insurers. Structured insight into **political violence, terrorism, civil unrest and personnel risk** — designed for underwriting and exposure assessment. **Insurance desk** NOAH PREDICT · Predictive political risk intelligence The lag problem ## By the time a view reaches a quarterly briefing, the signal is weeks old. Broker consensus, country-risk reports and expert surveys are useful reference points. They are also slow. Political violence does not deteriorate on a quarterly reporting cadence. By the time a view appears in a published briefing, the underlying signal has been detectable in the wider information system for days — often weeks. Noah sits underneath that reporting layer. Continuous ingestion of roughly 1.6 million sources per refresh, paragraph-level AI sentiment, and a structured physics layer measuring velocity, trajectory, divergence, volatility and coupling. The output is decision-ready: a composite 0–100 score with documented weights, a peril breakdown, sub-national divergence, peer comparison, and a concrete underwriting verdict. Every run is traceable to paragraph-level source and cross-referenced against six independent external benchmarks. What lands on your desk ## Every run carries the same underwriter-grade structure. Noah is not a chatbot and not a news summariser. It is a structured-output system whose format is designed for underwriting use. 01 · Composite **0–100 score with documented weights** A weighted composite across nine perils, with the exact weights published in weights_doc on every run. No black box. Current weighting: Terrorism 0.20 · War 0.17 · Political Violence 0.15 · K&R 0.13 · SRCC 0.10 · Non-Payment 0.08 · Currency 0.07 · MedEvac 0.06 · Expropriation 0.04. 02 · Peril sheet **Nine perils, each scored 0–10 with signal basis** Every peril carries a signal_basis attribution (which signal families drove the score and in what proportions) and an action_trigger — a concrete underwriting action such as “Load K&R, PV/T” or “+15–25% load; deductible USD 25k → 50k”. 03 · Sub-national **District-level scoring with hard-data counts** Each district carries a composite 0–100 plus kidnap_freq_90d, ied_within_5km_un, ingo_convoy_incidents_90d, and hospital_mci_capacity — the numeric inputs an in-house exposure team would want to see. 04 · Verdict per coverage **Per district, per line of business** A verdict_per_coverage block for each district, each row reading *bind*, *load N%*, *exclude* or *decline* for K&R, MedEvac, PA, PV/T, Property and War. Working-paper-ready. 05 · Peer comparison **Calibrated against the neighbouring book** Every country-level composite carries a peer set: Somalia 84 vs Yemen 88, South Sudan 90, Mali 82, Burkina Faso 78, DRC 75 — with per-peril sub-scores and a rank note per peer. The number you see is anchored against the book you already know. 06 · Horizons **Forecast read over 7 days / 4 weeks / 3 months** Three horizons on every report. Each comes with a direction label (rising / flat / falling) and a one-line rationale tied to signal velocity. The short, medium and renewal-window reads in one place. 07 · Invalidation **What would change Noah’s mind** Three to five calibrated pivot points with expected magnitude — “al-Shabaab captures a district capital, composite rises to 93+”, “aid-worker K&R with ransom >USD 2m, re-rate +30% minimum”. Falsifiable, not hedged. 08 · Executive verdict **Ends with a concrete pricing action** Every brief ends in underwriter language: “+15–25% on K&R renewals; exclude Lower Shabelle on PV/T; retain USD 1m MedEvac sub-limit; no new binders in Middle Juba without fac re.” One sentence, five decisions. Benchmarked against ## Six independent external anchors, attached to every bundle. Noah is designed to be cross-checked. Every country-level bundle ships with an _external_anchors block so you (or your reviewing LLM) can independently verify the read against reference points that already sit in your workflow. Official advisoryFCDO UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office travel advice. Level, regions-advised-against, summary text. Official advisoryUS State Dept Travel advisories at Level 1–4 with the nine indicator codes — Terrorism, Crime, Kidnapping, Civil Unrest, Health, Natural Disaster, Time-limited Event, Wrongful Detention, Other. Peace indexGlobal Peace Index IEP annual ranking 1–163 with overall score and three domain sub-scores: ongoing conflict, societal safety, militarisation. GovernanceWorld Bank WGI Worldwide Governance Indicators on six axes: political stability, rule of law, control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, voice and accountability. SanctionsOFAC & UK HMT Sovereign-level designations and named-entity designations via Risk Atlas, with last-update timestamp. For the compliance layer, not the headline. Event dataACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data — event counts, fatalities, top actors and top admin-1 regions over 30, 90 and 365-day windows. Marsh-style posture Noah produces the **structure** of a Marsh World Risk Review — WRR-adjacent peril tables, peer comparison, district-level verdicts, rate-band language — without licensing Marsh WRR data. Rate-band suggestions are Noah-derived, not Marsh-sourced. The phrase “Marsh-style” denotes the shape of the output, not the data source. Where it lands ## Four moments in the underwriting cycle. Noah is read and cited at four points in the cycle. Each moment maps to a specific subset of the output. Moment 01 **Risk selection** Is this environment deteriorating, stabilising, or transitioning? Does the peer comparison support the rate I’m being asked to write at? - Composite 0–100 with 90-day delta and 12-month baseline percentile - Peer comparison table with per-peril sub-scores - Regime classification (fragile calm, pressure release, political crisis, stabilisation, regime instability) - External anchor agreement matrix Moment 02 **Renewal decisions** Do last year’s pricing assumptions still hold? Is the book drifting in a direction that warrants a re-rate? - Horizon views at 7d / 4w / 3m calibrated to the renewal window - Peril-by-peril action triggers (load, exclude, retain, decline) - Invalidation triggers with expected composite movement - Executive verdict ending in a concrete pricing action Moment 03 **Exposure monitoring** Where is the book concentrating? Which sub-region of which country is moving faster than the national headline? - Sub-national divergence: district composites with hard-data counts - Tremors and relief: granular findings that passed the four-gate specificity filter - Cross-peril couplings (when two perils co-move, exposure stacks) - Source-mix transparency panel Moment 04 **Challenge & validation** Does the internal model’s read hold up against an independent signal-led view? Where does the analyst’s draft disagree with the corpus? - Contrarian read, mandatory on every run - Blind spot, named for each answer (what the corpus may be missing) - Full provenance trace to paragraph-level evidence - Downloadable bundle with methodology for peer review The key point ## It does not replace underwriting judgement. Noah does not replace underwriting judgement. It *improves* it — by providing a clearer view of how risk is actually moving, before consensus catches up. Every output carries a mandatory contrarian read, a named blind spot, and a confidence band that is explicit rather than hedged into the prose. The audit is the point: this is a tool for underwriters who want to be able to show their working. Better visibility. Better decisions. Better outcomes. Elsewhere on Noah Predict ### More from the system. For reinsurers **Reinsurance** Aggregation risk in real time — clustering, overlap, correlation and early indicators of systemic escalation. Read more → Domain **Political Risk** Political systems under pressure — the cycles of pressure, response, escalation and release that produce change. Read more → Domain **Maritime** Chokepoints, piracy, naval movement and port instability — maritime risk as a connected geopolitical system. Read more → Free while in preview Official systems show the current state of risk. *Noah shows where it is moving.* Google sign-in. Three free analyses a day. No card required. Open the workspace → How it works --- ## Citation Cite this page as: "Noah Predict, Insurance, Worldwide AI Media Ltd, https://noahpredict.com/insurance/, accessed [date]."