Prediction markets · edge

Find where the market is wrong.

Measure contract probability using structured public signal, not crowd sentiment.

Prediction markets reflect what people believe. Noah measures what is actually forming. By analysing the full signal environment — including fragmented and low-visibility sources — Noah identifies where probability is shifting before it becomes consensus.

The result is a measurable position, not a crowd-derived estimate.

Probability Divergence Liquidity Timing Velocity Edge
What it does

Seven trading jobs Noah is built for.

Traders use Noah to spot mispricing, time entry and rerun the same contract as the picture changes.

What you can do.

  • Identify mispriced contracts
  • Detect early directional movement before odds adjust
  • Compare Noah probability vs market probability
  • Assess liquidity and contract quality
  • Monitor positions as signal evolves
  • Track divergence between narrative and pricing
  • Rerun positions continuously

Example questions.

  • Is this contract mispriced?
  • What is the true probability?
  • Is the market ahead or behind the signal?
  • Where is the edge?
  • What is likely to move next?
  • Should I enter or wait?
  • Is this noise or real movement?
What you actually receive

Two probabilities. The gap between them is the edge.

Every Prediction Markets read returns a market price, a Noah-derived probability, the divergence between them, ranked drivers and watchpoints — paired with the structured bundle so the position is interrogable end-to-end.

Example output

US election outcome contract · 14-day horizon

Market probability 52%
Noah probability 63%
Edge 11pp
Position Positive divergence
Composite 63 / 100
Direction Strengthening

Confidence: moderate directional. Evidence: 18 supporting signals across political reporting, regional sentiment and campaign activity.

Drivers
  • Shift in regional engagement patterns
  • Increased signal consistency across local sources
  • Weakening counter-signal from opposing narrative
Watchpoints
  • Major campaign event or policy shift
  • Media narrative consolidation
  • Polling reversal
prediction-output.json · click to expand
{
  "frame": "prediction_markets",
  "subject": "US election contract",
  "market_probability": 52,
  "noah_probability":   63,
  "position":   "positive_divergence",
  "direction":  "strengthening",
  "confidence": "moderate",
  "evidence_count": 18
}
Click for the full bundle — structured, machine-readable, audit-ready
Core difference

Markets price visibility. Signal forms earlier.

Most participants react to what is already visible. Noah measures the inputs the market hasn't priced yet:

  • Early signal formation
  • Fragmented data across low-visibility sources
  • Emerging consistency before consensus

This is where probability moves before pricing adjusts.

How a market read is built

Each contract is a defined investigation.

The route is fixed; the signal is what changes. The same contract can be rerun continuously and the position will reflect the latest read.

How a read comes together.

  • 01Routes through a prediction-market workflow
  • 02Maps signal to the underlying event
  • 03Constructs directional signal lanes
  • 04Measures probability pressure
  • 05Compares signal-derived probability vs market price
  • 06Returns a structured divergence position

Six analytical dimensions.

  • Signal consistency
  • Directional momentum
  • Contradictory evidence
  • Source breadth
  • Narrative convergence
  • Timing and velocity
Where edge appears

Two numbers matter.

What the market says A consensus price, derived from crowd belief.
What the signal shows A measured probability, derived from forming evidence.
Noah highlights
  • Underpriced probability.
  • Overpriced narratives.
  • False consensus.
  • Early directional movement.
Beyond a single read

Monitor continuously. Filter the markets that aren't worth trading.

Edge is only edge if it's real. Noah keeps reading and filters out false edges driven by poor markets.

Continuous monitoring.

  • Save any contract
  • Track probability movement over time
  • Identify when divergence widens or closes
  • Detect when signal confirms or breaks

Contract quality.

  • Liquidity strength
  • Signal relevance to the underlying event
  • Structural clarity of the contract itself
Prevents: false edges driven by poor markets.
Where Prediction Markets fits

Built for traders working signal, not sentiment.

Use cases
Trading decisions Position timing Market scanning Signal-based forecasting Narrative validation
Who this is for
Prediction market traders Macro traders Analysts Independent researchers
Deployment

Run it the way you trade.

From an individual trader's workspace to API-fed automated monitoring or full institutional deployment.

Individual workspace

Trader-level investigation with saved contracts, structured exports and the full position history attached.

API for monitoring

Automated monitoring of saved contracts, with divergence and movement events streamed straight into your tools.

Trading workflow integration

Drop a Noah read into your trading or research pipeline alongside whatever else you use to size positions.

Private deployment

Audit-ready, behind-the-firewall deployments for institutional desks that need signal and method to stay internal.

Markets follow signal. They just don't know it yet.

Run a market investigation.

Run a market investigation Test a live contract
noah-predict-package · sample evidence bundle
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